Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
