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Beijing has sent its maritime law enforcement into the waters of the Diaoyu islands and military drones past remote Japan's territory as China escalates strains following the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its ships carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Japan but also asserted as territory by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the islands but the latest activity occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, told parliament that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has indicated it demands a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Taiwan's Position

China claims the island as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has left open the military option. Taiwan’s government and citizens overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the status quo without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An military assault by Beijing would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the United States and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has territory just 68 miles from the island.

Defense Operations

In Taiwan, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was likely the maritime patrol, active near the island over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones operating near Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go unusually near to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are occasional, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said Beijing had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. Taiwan documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from China since the Japanese official made her comments, with China’s consul general in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by commenting that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, China’s government on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other powers, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.